Is there a path for a Utah at-large College Football Playoff bid?
Utah is in a strong position with three weeks left in the season.
While the Utes don't control their destiny for the Big 12 championship, there's still a chance they can reach it with some external support. But with a No. 13 College Football Playoff ranking, can the Utes secure their first-ever CFP appearance without reaching the Big 12 title?
With the regular season nearing its end, it's worth exploring if an at-large bid is even possible for the Utes.
The College Football Playoff committee clearly values Utah's résumé. Their two losses were against top-ranked teams: No. 6 Texas Tech and No. 12 BYU.
In those games, Utah showed resilience, nearly overcoming Texas Tech and losing by just three points to BYU. In the other seven games, the Utes dominated, winning by an average margin of 36 points, including impressive victories over No. 21 Arizona State and No. 17 Cincinnati.
The Utes' strong performance has caught the attention of the CFP committee, with committee chair Mack Rhodes praising their wins against Arizona State and Cincinnati. The win against Cincinnati, in particular, was a significant boost for the Utes' ranking.
Utah also excels in various metrics. ESPN's Football Power Index ranks them No. 9 in the country, indicating their strong overall performance. They are one of only four teams to rank in the top 10 for both scoring offense and defense.
However, the big question remains: If Utah wins all its remaining games but doesn't reach the Big 12 championship, will they have a chance at an at-large CFP bid?
The final CFP rankings will determine their fate. Utah needs to be ranked in the top 10 to secure a bid in the 12-team playoff.
The Group of Five and ACC champions will automatically earn bids, and the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 champions will also secure spots. This leaves seven at-large spots open.
For Utah to move into the top 10, they must win all their remaining games (against Baylor, Kansas State, and Kansas) and hope that teams ahead of them, like No. 9 Notre Dame, No. 10 Texas, and No. 11 Oklahoma, lose.
Notre Dame's best chance to lose a third game is this Saturday against No. 22 Pittsburgh, though they are still favored. Texas has a challenging schedule, with games against No. 5 Georgia, Arkansas, and No. 3 Texas A&M, making a third loss likely. Oklahoma also faces a tough schedule, playing against No. 4 Alabama and Missouri.
One factor working against Utah is the lack of another statement win, as they won't play another team close to the CFP rankings in their final games.
If enough teams ahead of Utah lose, a top-10 ranking in the final rankings might become possible. However, there are several 'what if' scenarios to consider.
Texas Tech is favored to win the Big 12 championship, and even if they lose in the title game, they might still secure a CFP spot. BYU, with two losses to Texas Tech, might struggle to make the CFP, even if they win the conference championship.
The committee's ranking considerations are complex. While playing in the championship game is positive, losing it doesn't necessarily hurt your chances. However, a lopsided loss could spark discussions within the committee.
Utah's focus remains on winning, as they can't control external factors. Coach Kyle Whittingham emphasizes the importance of taking things one week at a time.
The Utes' path to an at-large CFP bid is filled with uncertainties, but their strong performance and high rankings give them a fighting chance.
