Australia's role in supplying China with critical minerals has sparked debate, especially regarding the potential military applications of these resources. The country's largest shareholders in two Australian mines producing minerals vital for Beijing's hypersonic missiles and nuclear programs have raised concerns about the impact on national security.
In a rare acknowledgment of its vulnerability, China admits its reliance on imports for zirconium, a critical mineral. Australia is the world's largest producer, supplying 41% of China's imports. This has led to Australian regulators allowing Beijing-backed companies to become major shareholders in Western Australia mines, with the federal government even providing a $160 million soft loan to one of them.
Despite this, Australia is also positioning itself as a partner of choice for the United States in its efforts to break Beijing's stranglehold over rare earths and critical minerals. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recently signed a $13 billion deal with US President Donald Trump to ensure the United States has sufficient raw materials for its defense and technology sectors.
However, the situation becomes more complex when considering China's re-export of zirconium to Russia, which has surged more than 300% since the war with Ukraine began in 2022. This re-export is facilitated by the ultimate parent company of one of the Australian miners, raising questions about the potential military applications of the mineral.
David Kilcullen, a military strategist and former adviser to the US secretary of state, emphasizes the need for Australia to carefully consider the controls in place for its critical minerals. He highlights the dual-use nature of nuclear technology and the importance of understanding where minerals go, especially those that could be used for nuclear or missile production.
The geopolitical implications of zirconium are significant. While it is traditionally used in bathroom tiles and toilets, it is also used in the production of zirconium sponges, which wrap nuclear fuel rods. These fuel rods are essential for civilian power plants, but any country looking to expand its nuclear arsenal needs a steady supply of zirconium.
Furthermore, zirconium's high melting point makes it ideal for the extreme temperatures withstood by hypersonic missiles, which travel at more than five times the speed of sound. This dual-use nature of the mineral is a cause for concern, as it can be used in both civilian and military applications.
The Chinese government's military-civil fusion doctrine, where commercial companies and tech development are controlled by the military, further complicates the situation. China's National University of Defense Technology has identified its vulnerability in having less than 1% of the world's zirconium, making resource allocation and usage a critical issue for national security and military technological progress.
The Australian government's stance on tighter controls is also a point of contention. Defence Minister Richard Marles believes that Australia's withdrawal from the zirconium market would not necessarily stop its military use, as there are other sources of the mineral. However, this view is challenged by experts who emphasize the need to carefully consider the economic and trade policies that support national security strategies.
In conclusion, Australia's role in supplying China with critical minerals, particularly zirconium, raises complex geopolitical and security concerns. The dual-use nature of the mineral, China's military-civil fusion doctrine, and the potential re-export to Russia all contribute to a situation that requires careful consideration and regulation to ensure national security and technological progress.
